Market Moves

Let me start out by saying I have been busy preparing for the Harvest season and now am in the throws of the Harvest season. I apologize for not keeping up with more posting in these tumultuous times for us Farmers. But to be perfect honest once this thing turned into a world wide melt-down of sorts, tied not to basic fundamentals I could see nobody really had a good idea how far things could fall, myself included. It all depended on influences out-side the grain markets. The grain fundamentals, out-side this financial crisis looked good for prices, but money rules direction and it is not pretty. I call these very uncertain times to the Maximum and the technical charts look very weak. So just as we were in somewhat uncertain territory for the last two years on how high we could go exactly. The reverse is true in so much as we could go lower, even much lower or turn around tomorrow. But my bet is lower.................This AM I was reading the latest from Bill Gary's Price Perceptions (Bill Gary's Newsletter is one I would highly reccomend his website is here http://www.cis-okc.com/ ) Another one that I use is FC stone who is here http://www.fcstone.com/. He covers Fundamentals and technicals on a mirad of Commodities. What really struck me HARD was this. Corn, Soybean, SB Oil, Meal, Oats, Wheat, Cotton, CRB, Crude, Dow, Gold, Silver, Copper, Cattle, Hogs. ALL have Ugly technical charts. And most I don't me a little Ugly. I mean crash and burn UGLY....So what I am trying to convey is this, they say it is the darkest right before Dawn, But I am not sure if it is Midnight or 5:00 AM...............But my Bias now is it a ways from Dawn..........John Thomas Pfaffinger

I have updated my yield model. Notice that my soybean yields have declined since last months Estimates by a bushel and my corn estimates have have increased by a bushel...........FWIW, I will put my estimates against any high paid analysts.........And when viewing double-Click on Thumbnail and then single click and select Magnifying Glass.........John Thomas Pfaffinger

by Charlie Martin

Here is the response given by Jeff Broin, CEO of Poet when asked about ethanol subsidies and the changing political climate.

"The tax credit for blending ethanol cost the U.S. Treasury about 3 billion dollars last year.  At the same time the higher price of agricultural commodiities decreased the direct support to farmers by approximately $8 billion.  And according to Iowa State Univesity, it has kept down the cost of gasoline in the country by 29 to 40 cents per gallon, saving consumers about $40 to $60 billion.  I think you call that a great return on investment.

In order for the ethanol industry to do more, some adjustments need to be made so that our country can use more renewable fuels.  Although the government has mandated the production of 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022, the industry will soon produce the annual equivalent of ten percent of our nation's transportation fuel.  Since the base blend of ethanol in gasoline in ten percent and growth in E85 has been minor, ther will be no market for additional ethanol.

The government needs to do two things to solve this probvlem.  First, we need to increase the base blend of ethanol in gosoline.  This has been very successful in Brazil., wher they have a 25 per cent base blend and studies have shown that some cars get better gas mileage on 20 or 30 per cent ethanol than they do on straight uleaded gasoline.  That will help increase the amount of ethanol we can use in the short term.  Long term we need to speed up development of mid-level blend infrastructure so tha ethanol can beome a true competitor to gasoline. "

Increasing the blends, not the subsidies seems to be a better choice.  cm

 

This is my Final Yield estimates for the US Corn Yields.......Like Soybeans I plan on Updating them one more time pre-harvest. And when viewing double-Click on Thumbnail and then single click and select Magnifying Glass.........John Thomas Pfaffinger

 

I just Completed my Estimation for Final Soybean yields for each State. I plan on updating the model at least one more time before harvest. The yield model considers normal frost dates and weather from here until harvest is complete..........FWIW.........

PS...Double Click the picture. One it is in your browser click on it one more time and click magnifying Glass.

John Thomas Pfaffinger